Jason Brodsky ✓
Sun, 19 Apr 2026 13:15:56 UTC
President Trump has told the @nypost and @TheWeekendMSNOW today that Vice President Vance will NOT be attending the talks in Islamabad, #Pakistan with #Iran's regime.
With the wide gaps between both sides on core issues--e.g. enrichment and the stockpile of enriched uranium--it's hard to see the latest round of talks in Islamabad reaching a breakthrough. Vice President Vance not attending is telling as to expectations management here.
It's hard to offer precise predictions in this unprecedented and volatile situation, but the two most plausible outcomes in Islamabad in my view are (A) neither a breakthrough nor breakdown and an extension of the ceasefire, or (B) President Trump deciding to escalate based on the Islamic Republic's instransigence.
𝕏 · @shin_persian
@JasonMBrodskySun, 19 Apr 2026 13:15:56 UTC
President Trump has told the @nypost and @TheWeekendMSNOW today that Vice President Vance will NOT be attending the talks in Islamabad, #Pakistan with #Iran's regime.
With the wide gaps between both sides on core issues--e.g. enrichment and the stockpile of enriched uranium--it's hard to see the latest round of talks in Islamabad reaching a breakthrough. Vice President Vance not attending is telling as to expectations management here.
It's hard to offer precise predictions in this unprecedented and volatile situation, but the two most plausible outcomes in Islamabad in my view are (A) neither a breakthrough nor breakdown and an extension of the ceasefire, or (B) President Trump deciding to escalate based on the Islamic Republic's instransigence.
فارسی
رئیسجمهور ترامپ امروز به @nypost و @TheWeekendMSNOW گفته است که معاون رئیسجمهور، ونس، در مذاکرات اسلامآباد، #پاکستان با رژیم #ایران شرکت نخواهد کرد.
با وجود شکافهای گسترده میان دو طرف در موضوعات کلیدی - به عنوان مثال غنیسازی و ذخایر اورانیوم غنیشده - دشوار است که بتوان تصور کرد دور اخیر مذاکرات در اسلامآباد به گشایشی دست یابد. عدم حضور معاون رئیسجمهور، ونس، در مورد مدیریت انتظارات در اینجا گویای همه چیز است.
ارائه پیشبینیهای دقیق در این شرایط بیسابقه و بیثبات دشوار است، اما از نظر من دو نتیجه احتمالی در اسلامآباد عبارتند از: (الف) نه گشایش و نه فروپاشی [مذاکرات] و تمدید آتشبس، یا (ب) تصمیم رئیسجمهور ترامپ به تشدید تنشها بر اساس لجاجت جمهوری اسلامی.
𝕏 · @shin_persian
❤19😁8