Forwarded from Kael Playground
회색인간의 매크로 + 투자
저는 외국인들 포지션이라는게 어떤건지 참 궁금합니다. 저한테도 많이들 물어보시는데 외국인 포지션을 추적하는게 무슨 의미가 있는지 모르겠습니다. 외국인들은 1개의 균질한 집단인가요? 결과적으로는 더 올라가지 않고 내려와서, 사실상 패대기치고 끝났네요.
희안하군요. 외인수급, 포지션은 한국시장에 미치는 영향이 꽤 커서 간과할 수 없다고 생각합니다. 물론 단일한 집단으로 보기 어렵습니다. 다양한 전략과 목적으로 매수매도 했을 수 있고 집단도 다양하니까요. 그럼에도 불구하고 외인들을 추적하는 이유는 한국 시장에 무시 할 수 없는 영향을 끼치는 자본집단 이라는 점입니다. 수급만보고 단적으로 해석하기에도 무리가 있으나 외인들의 동태는 생각보다 도움이 됩니다. 시장의 기본적 흐름과 데이터를 같이 보면 그 어딘가에 힌트가 될만한 포인트도 있으니까요.
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Forwarded from 올바른
어제 메모리 하락을 불러온 Western Digital CEO 발언
*Western Digital(-5.59%), Micron(-3.74%)
So what's happening on the ground right now in the business? It's a very -- we've said this for the last month or so. We're expecting a few choppy quarters here. We're kind of in a mid cycle point in the business. I think the thesis is quite well known. PCs and smartphones have kind of got enough inventory. They kind of ramped up coming out of the downturn. Those markets demand is maybe not as you know, we're more optimistic about demand as we move through ‘25 than we're seeing right now. We've got enterprise SSD which is strong. But as we go through this quarter, I would say it's fair to say in this quarter there's more pricing headwinds than we expected when we entered the quarter. It's an extraordinarily dynamic quarter. We're not done yet. We'll see how it all adds up in the end.
But it's a very, very dynamic quarter. We think that that's going to go into next quarter. We're very optimistic on the setup of the business as we go through ‘25. If you look at the amount of CapEx that's been invested, we have a positive bias on PC is coming back. We have a positive bias on smartphones coming back. We think the data center eSSD has legs throughout the year. But if that doesn't play out and we see these near-term dynamics, we'll adjust production appropriately.
And that's maybe different than the last time we went through the downturn, where maybe there was too long of a wait to turn the supply dial down because the demand wasn't there. I think as we're thinking about the business now, if we continue to see these-- although we're very optimistic about the business as we go through ‘25, we like the setup. If we see two, three quarter of this and we're going to see this kind of choppy, more headwinds than we expected, then we'll look at the production side of the business.
*Western Digital(-5.59%), Micron(-3.74%)
So what's happening on the ground right now in the business? It's a very -- we've said this for the last month or so. We're expecting a few choppy quarters here. We're kind of in a mid cycle point in the business. I think the thesis is quite well known. PCs and smartphones have kind of got enough inventory. They kind of ramped up coming out of the downturn. Those markets demand is maybe not as you know, we're more optimistic about demand as we move through ‘25 than we're seeing right now. We've got enterprise SSD which is strong. But as we go through this quarter, I would say it's fair to say in this quarter there's more pricing headwinds than we expected when we entered the quarter. It's an extraordinarily dynamic quarter. We're not done yet. We'll see how it all adds up in the end.
But it's a very, very dynamic quarter. We think that that's going to go into next quarter. We're very optimistic on the setup of the business as we go through ‘25. If you look at the amount of CapEx that's been invested, we have a positive bias on PC is coming back. We have a positive bias on smartphones coming back. We think the data center eSSD has legs throughout the year. But if that doesn't play out and we see these near-term dynamics, we'll adjust production appropriately.
And that's maybe different than the last time we went through the downturn, where maybe there was too long of a wait to turn the supply dial down because the demand wasn't there. I think as we're thinking about the business now, if we continue to see these-- although we're very optimistic about the business as we go through ‘25, we like the setup. If we see two, three quarter of this and we're going to see this kind of choppy, more headwinds than we expected, then we'll look at the production side of the business.
Forwarded from 하나 중국/신흥국 전략 김경환
•중화권 증시 개장 낙폭 확대. 부동산 및 밸류체인, 금융, 배터리, 원자재 관련 업종 약세. 이벤트 소멸에 대한 반작용
•금번 경제공작회의에서 부동산 관련 디테일에 실망한 움직임, 배터리와 친환경 분야는 최근 상승에 따른 차익실현 빌미
•위안화 약세, 채권 금리는 사상최저 경신
•다만, 실제로는 중국 3월 전인대 이전 이벤트 소멸이 아니라, 1-2월 부처별 소비•산업 지원책이 일부 발표되고 유동성 효과는 극대화되는 시기
•금번 경제공작회의에서 부동산 관련 디테일에 실망한 움직임, 배터리와 친환경 분야는 최근 상승에 따른 차익실현 빌미
•위안화 약세, 채권 금리는 사상최저 경신
•다만, 실제로는 중국 3월 전인대 이전 이벤트 소멸이 아니라, 1-2월 부처별 소비•산업 지원책이 일부 발표되고 유동성 효과는 극대화되는 시기
Forwarded from 간절한 투자스터디카페
변함없는 제 포트 비중순은
연어
폐암
라면
리들샷
입니다
이상
* 매수추천 아니고, 언제라도 매도할 수도 있음
연어
폐암
라면
리들샷
입니다
이상
* 매수추천 아니고, 언제라도 매도할 수도 있음
Forwarded from 주식돋보기
[속보] '尹대통령 탄핵안' 가결…찬성 204·반대 85·기권 3·무효 8 https://m.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20241214045400001
연합뉴스
[속보] '尹대통령 탄핵안' 가결…찬성 204·반대 85·기권 3·무효 8 | 연합뉴스
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미장 공부는 계속해야하지 않을까요 국장이 더 떡락하는것도 아니고 지금 테슬라 산다고 인생바뀌는건 아니지만 지금 안하면 다음번 사이클도 손가락 빨아야할수있음
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